outrightArb
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
+1961.86% profit
Live
AI Value Picks
Mathematically-backed recommendations with positive expected value — powered by prediction market analysis and Kelly criterion sizing.
Updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026
0
Total Picks
+0.0%
Avg EV
$0.00
Total Staked
$0.00
Expected Profit
52%
AI Accuracy · 26/50
Arbitrage Opportunities
16 risk-free arbs detected across 30 events
outrightArb
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
+1685.71% profit
outrightArb
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
+1500.00% profit
Today's Picks
0 positive-EV opportunities identified
No picks available at this time. Check back soon.
Our Methodology
How we identify and size high-EV opportunities
How We Calculate EV
Expected Value is computed as:
EV = (AI Prob × Decimal Odds) − 1
Our AI assigns probabilities by aggregating prediction market signals, on-chain data, and historical performance, then compares them to the market-implied price to surface edge.
Stake Sizing
Stakes are sized using the Half-Kelly Criterion — the mathematically optimal formula for bankroll growth while limiting drawdown risk.
f = (bp − q) / b × 0.5
Half-Kelly halves the theoretically optimal bet fraction, reducing variance and protecting your bankroll during model uncertainty.
Confidence Score
A 0–100 score reflecting the model's certainty in its probability estimate. Higher is better.
- Data quality and completeness
- Prediction market liquidity
- Model agreement across indicators
AI-powered analysis
Polymarket data
Updated daily
Kelly Criterion sizing
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. These picks are generated by an AI model and are provided for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. Prediction markets and sports betting carry inherent risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.